Workers’ movement out of declining occupations in Great Britain, Germany and Switzerland

The employment structure undergoes constant change. Some occupations grow while others decline under the pressure of technological advances, welfare state reforms and globalisation. This evolution at the aggregate level has been well documented. Our knowledge of how macro-level change in the employment structure is brought about through micro-level career adjustments is less extensive. Drawing on panel data, this paper examines what type of workers are most likely to leave occupations that have declined over the past 20 years, and the destination of these individual exits in Great Britain, Germany and Switzerland. In all three countries, we find that male production workers are less likely to exit a declining occupation, but are more likely to become unemployed if they do leave. In comparison, the most probable route out of declining occupations for female clerical workers is into high paid growing occupations.